Man Utd vs Man City and Tottenham vs Arsenal: betPawa BIG match insights
There’s nothing quite like derby day to get the pulse racing. Here’s our take on 2 epic local rivalries that will write new chapters this weekend.
Manchester United vs Manchester City
The 189th Manchester Derby
Noisy neighbours dominant in recent meetings
City will be looking to close the gap between them and current leaders Arsenal to just 2 points with a win in Saturday’s early kick-off. As if that’s not enough incentive, they’re also looking for a record 19th win against United in the Premier League since it was formed. City, Chelsea and Liverpool are all currently locked on 18 EPL wins against The Red Devils.
United’s recent record in the Manchester Derby is awful, losing their last 3 and shipping 12 goals in that sequence. For context, they conceded just 12 goals to City in the 12 preceding league derby encounters combined. City are looking for a historic sixth Premier League double over United.
Old Trafford becoming a fortress again
The mood around United has been noticeably lifted. Since 22nd August when they beat Liverpool, no side have collected more points overall than the Red Devils (35) and they’ve won 11 out of 15 matches in that sequence. At Old Trafford, they’ve collected 19 points from the last 21 on offer. Erik ten Hag is doing something right.
Pep hits 500
Pep Guardiola will preside over the 500th top-flight league match of his managerial career at Old Trafford this weekend, and his 246th in the EPL. The Spaniard has won 379 out of 499 league matches so far, boasting a win ratio of 76%. Unsurprisingly, it’s the best win rate and highest number of wins of any manager taking charge of 100+ games in Europe’s top 5 leagues since 2008/09 (his first season at Barcelona).
The only thing that’s more predictable than Pep’s astonishing hunger for success is his unpredictability with matchday selections. He's already hinted at “ridiculous” ideas in the build-up to this one. Whether or not that’s just the start of the mind games remains to be seen, but it feels like a pointless exercise even attempting to second guess Pep Guardiola.
Most recent meeting: City 6-3 United (October 2022)
This season’s reverse fixture was the highest-scoring Manchester Derby in EPL history, with both Erling Haaland and Phil Foden hitting hat-tricks. Amazingly, it was Haaland’s third consecutive treble at home in the EPL after he also took home the match ball against Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace. Anthony Martial scored 2 of United’s goals that day, taking his personal tally against City to 5 in the EPL. The Citizens are Martial’s joint-favourite EPL opponents as far as his scoring record goes.
Rashford reborn
As is so often the case with talented young footballers, Marcus Rashford went through a serious and lengthy dip in form last season. In 2022/23, however, he looks like a new man. The 25-year-old is red-hot right now, scoring in each of his last 6 appearances for United across all competitions, and in each of his last 8 at Old Trafford.
The Manchester Derby is an occasion that “Rashy” has enjoyed in the past too. In March 2016, he became the youngest ever goalscorer in the fixture, aged 18 years and 141 days. Rashford hasn’t actually scored in any of his last 5 Manchester Derby matches though, so he’ll surely feel that this is a great opportunity to break that run.
United finally have their new midfield general
Since his EPL debut against Everton, Casemiro ranks second for tackles (40), joint-fifth for interceptions (13), fifth for possessions won (73), second for duels won (77) and second for clearances (22) among all midfielders. His outstanding overall influence is obvious, and he’s also weighed in with 2 goals and 2 assists in a red jersey.
United arguably never found a true replacement for Michael Carrick, and although Casemiro isn’t stylistically identical, the role he plays is largely the same. A bargain at €60m, so far. Who would have said that when the 30-year-old agreed on a move from Real Madrid? Casemiro has made a stellar career out of reading dangerous situations, breaking them up and starting his own team’s attacks, and United fans love that he’s doing all of that for them.
Haaland happiest scoring goals
Bagging a hat-trick on your Manchester Derby debut is about as perfect as it gets. Kevin De Bruyne, one of Haaland’s major suppliers of chances, has spoken of the Norwegian’s “obsession” with scoring goals, and KDB believes that Haaland could hit the back of the net 800 times in his career. It seems as though anything is possible with this guy.
Haaland has 27 goals in 22 competitive appearances so far this term and, if fitness and form stay on the 22-year-old’s side, it’s frightening to start imagining how those numbers could swell.
His 21 EPL strikes in 16 appearances have arrived at a gobsmacking average of a goal every 62 minutes. All of this despite the fact that Haaland has had just 24.8 touches per 90 minutes, placing him fourth lowest of ALL players to start 5+ EPL games in that metric. Haaland is absurdly efficient in his work and productive in front of goal. He’s never scored a hat-trick on the road for City either, so that’s something he’ll likely be obsessing over until it happens.
The outlook for Saturday
United have scored exactly 3 goals in each of their last 4 home matches across all competitions, while City are gunning for a fourth consecutive EPL win over the old enemy. There’s been a goal scored within 10 minutes in each of the last 4 head-to-heads.
The Theatre of Dreams is the place to be on the 14th.
Tottenham vs Arsenal
Gunners looking to make North London red again
Classic EPL drama guaranteed
Since the inaugural season of the Premier League, the North London Derby (NLD) has always tended to deliver rich entertainment. It’s the joint-second-highest scoring fixture in EPL history (175 goals), behind only Arsenal vs Liverpool (180), and level with Liverpool vs Spurs (175). 22 of those 175 goals have come via the penalty spot, with Harry Kane accounting for 31.8% of all successful spot-kicks in this fixture’s history.
Scoring first isn’t necessarily a good thing
10 EPL NLDs have seen the team that scored the first goal go on to lose the match, including 2 of the last 6, and Spurs have blown leads in 19 of their last 61 EPL clashes with the Gunners. One of the most memorable examples of this phenomenon came in November 2012 when Togolese striker Emmanuel Adebayor (who remains the only player in EPL history to score for both clubs) scored and then saw red for Spurs at Emirates Stadium.
Rewinding a little further, the 4-4 draw between these sides in October 2008 saw Tottenham rescue a point despite being 4-2 down in the 89th minute. That wasn’t Arsenal’s only 4-4 draw in 2008/09, just ask Andrey Arshavin and Liverpool.
Comebacks can never be ruled out in the heated atmosphere of the NLD.
Arteta’s young guns coming good
In 2022/23, Arsenal have the youngest average starting line-up in the Premier League (24 years, 232 days). The average age of Arsenal’s starting XI last season was 24 years and 308 days old – the sixth youngest ever and the youngest across a full EPL campaign since 2014/15, which, incidentally, happened to be Mauricio Pochettino’s Spurs (24y 282d).
Form counts for nothing when Spurs face Arsenal?
Tottenham are patchy and unpredictable at the moment. Their last 2 home league matches produced a 4-3 win over Leeds and a 0-2 defeat to Aston Villa. Their overall record in their last 3 top-flight matches reads DLW with a 2-2 stalemate away to Brentford and a 4-0 win away to Crystal Palace last time out sandwiching the loss to Villa.
Based on 3 points for a win, this is Arsenal’s best ever start to a league season (44 points from 17 games). It took them until their 24th match of 2021/22 to reach this tally. They are pushing for the title in 2022/23 and eyeing a finishing place above Spurs for the first time since 2015/16.
The Gunners haven’t done the league double over Spurs since 2013/14, which is also the last time they claimed an away league win against their bitter North London rivals. A win on enemy turf would be a seismic result for Mikel Arteta’s team, building on their 3-1 win against Spurs in October at Emirates Stadium.
The home side on the day have won each of the last 6 EPL NLDs, which makes Arteta’s task even trickier.
Harry Kane loves piling misery on Arsenal
Tottenham’s talisman has scored 14 times against Arsenal in 18 appearances against them (7 of those from the penalty spot) making him the highest scoring player in NLD history ahead of Bobby Smith and Emmanuel Adebayor (10). He’s gotten the better of 4 different Arsenal goalkeepers (David Ospina, Petr Cech, Bernd Leno and Aaron Ramsdale) throughout his career. A double in this derby would take Kane to 200 EPL strikes.
The stage is set for Sunday.